Pension Indicator Updated for February 28, 2018

The Cinderella of March Madness

By: Matthew R. Klein, Principal, Findley Davies

We are coming up on my two favorite weekdays of the year- the first two days of the NCAA basketball tournament.  Life is too busy now to enjoy college basketball like I once did, but I still love watching these little schools get a chance to take on the blue bloods.  And every year, one of those schools will actually pull it off.  Even once in a while a small school will get a hot streak and win a few games before stumbling.

In 2018, I am left to wonder about the Cinderella run the economy is on.  By the time you read this, we will have passed the nine-year anniversary of the low point of the Great Recession in March, 2009.  This is one of the longest bull runs in our history.  Dynamics have changed, technology has changed, but the economy still cruises along.  For perspective, the S&P500 has averaged a return of over 19% per year since that low point (Source: BTN Research).

We know intuitively that cannot continue.  And it won’t.  No one is predicting when this bull will finally be slayed, but history tells us that the day will come.  Father Time is undefeated. But just like the players of whatever school this year surprises everyone to make the Final Four only to finally succumb to a better team, let’s remember to keep some perspective about how good the run was when it’s over.

As always, thanks for reading, and drop us a comment on how we're doing.

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Information provided in this article is general in nature, is provided for informational purposes only, and should not be construed as investment advice. Performance data represents past performance.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Year to Date Investment Mix 
Plan TypeAggressiveBalancedLDI LiteLDI
 Frozen (for several years) 3.9% 3.3% 2.0% 0.1%
 Recently Frozen 5.4% 4.7% 3.5% 1.5%
 Ongoing Traditional 7.0% 6.3% 5.0% 3.0%
 Cash Balance 4.3% 3.7% 2.4% 0.5%
Month-over-Month Investment Mix 
Plan TypeAggressiveBalancedLDI LiteLDI
 Frozen (for several years) -1.0% -0.9% -1.0% -1.2%
 Recently Frozen -0.1% 0.0% -0.1% -0.3%
 Ongoing Traditional 0.8% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6%
 Cash Balance -0.8% -0.7% -0.8% -1.0%
12-Month Change Investment Mix 
Plan TypeAggressiveBalancedLDI LiteLDI
 Frozen (for several years) 11.9% 10.5% 9.7% 7.3%
 Recently Frozen 10.9% 9.4% 8.6% 6.3%
 Ongoing Traditional


8.3% 7.5% 5.2%
 Cash Balance 12.0%


9.7% 7.4%