Pension Indicator Updated for April 30, 2023
Commentary 100% Produced by Humans
By: Matthew Klein, Vice President & Senior Consulting Actuary, USICG
Seems like the trendy thing lately is to give AI a whirl with whatever muse you want. Just in the last week I’ve seen re-imagined mascots, re-worked movie endings, and what historical figures might look like in modern times. Most of this is funny, silly, or based on some of the mascots AI developed, scary-looking. All in all, it’s harmless.
However, there is a more serious side. According to reports, AI is good enough at writing papers that it is having a real impact on plagiarism and checking that students are doing original work with original thought. One of the lead developers of a tech firm has left his AI project recently so he could be open about the real dangers of AI as computing power grows and the algorithms become more refined.
What does AI have to do with pension funding? For starters, how will it improve actuarial science? Could an AI program be a much better predictor of future market movements than traditional Monte Carlo? Currently, the human element is still key. Yes, there is a ton of data out there and computers can help you organize and analyze, but a human still adds the “art” to the science of blending all the given information into what they think the best model of the future will be. How far off in the future is it before AI can do the “art” as well as the science?
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Information provided in this article is general in nature, is provided for informational purposes only, and should not be construed as investment advice. Performance data represents past performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
| Year to Date Investment Mix (Net) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plan Type | Growth | Balanced | LDI Lite | LDI |
| Frozen (for several years) | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% |
| Recently Frozen | 0.0% | -0.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% |
| Ongoing Traditional | -1.1% | -1.2% | -0.7% | -0.5% |
| Cash Balance | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% |
| Month-over-Month Investment Mix (Net) | ||||
| Plan Type | Growth | Balanced | LDI Lite | LDI |
| Frozen (for several years) | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Recently Frozen | 0.0% | -0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ongoing Traditional | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.2% | -0.2% |
| Cash Balance | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 12-Month Change Investment Mix (Net) | ||||
| Plan Type | Growth | Balanced | LDI Lite | LDI |
| Frozen (for several years) | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 2.8% |
| Recently Frozen | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.6% |
| Ongoing Traditional |
8.0% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.5% |
| Cash Balance | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.1% |
Please click on the "Historical" tab at the top of the website for longer time periods, including Five-Year and Return Since Inception (1/1/2016).
